A California Republican

What’s next if the ballot measures fail?

The Legislature has a record low approval rating - 14%. That is lower than President Bush, yet I guarantee you that the incumbents get re-elected and not a single seat switches party hands. The Governor’s approval is slightly better - 32%. Neither the Governor nor the Legislature has enough weight to carry any sort of solution based on popularity, their solutions or ballot measures would have to be carried because they are the right thing to do, and they can convince enough people of that.

Well, it turns out they cannot. With 1C, 1D, and 1E failing there is an immediate $6 billion hole placed back into the budget. The Legislative Analyst is forecasting an additional $8 billion hole. That means we would be at least $14 billion in the hole. That doesn’t include a continued downward trend, with more people needing state services such as unemployment and MediCal. If this trend continues, there will be a very large hole in the budget - that was supposedly solved by the Governor and Legislature by the ballot measures.

Instead what is going to happen is lots of cuts. People are going to lose jobs, benefits, and regulation. I wouldn’t be surprised if all money to public institutions of higher learning was cut off. That spending is completely discretionary, and there is nothing forcing the Governor and Legislature to spend that money. That would probably mean the closure of some CSU and UC campuses, but they do have reserves and they can always be self-sufficient if they wanted to be, but it is easier to cost less and rely on the state for money.

It will also mean a lot of other draconian cuts. Unemployment benefits, MediCal, Healthy Families and a lot of other programs would see drastic cuts.

Now, is this a bad thing? The answer is no. California has been spending much more than it takes in for years. In good times legislators expand programs or create new programs, and don’t set the money away for bad times. In past bad times, simple cuts and some bond measures, and some interesting accounting (which if a company did it would make a company CEO face jail time) have kept California afloat.

Now that simply won’t work. The people of California are going to pay the price for having a Legislature and Governor who won’t be fiscally responsible. It will be a mess, but with the low approval ratings and probable failure of Prop. 1A there will be no way, politically, to enact new taxes. The Democrats can try and go around the Republicans, but that will be mired in legal challenges and won’t go into effect for years.

What does this mean? It is possible that there is a fiscal deadline arriving, and that won’t be such a bad thing.